Russian President Vladimir Putin is creating "informational conditions" for the resumption of a forced partial conscription of reservists to replenish the army's losses in Ukraine, according to experts from the American Institute for the Study of War.

Preparations for a new "partial mobilization," according to them, are evidenced by laws passed late last year allowing the Ministry of Defense to deploy a 2-million-strong mobilization reserve, as well as the fact that the influx of contract soldiers has ceased to cover frontline losses. According to Western intelligence estimates, in January, the recruitment pipeline brought in 9,000 fewer troops than the generals lost on the battlefield.

Although the authorities declared that reservists (those who served in the army and signed a contract to be in the reserves) would only be deployed to "guard" critical facilities, the law allows for their deployment outside of Russia, ISW points out. Furthermore, since November, military registration and enlistment offices in Russia have been conducting year-round conscription, and in December, Putin signed a law on reservist training, the institute's experts point out.

The previous round of mobilization—in September 2022—triggered a sharp wave of discontent and the flight of up to 700,000 to 900,000 people abroad, ISW writes. Putin, as experts emphasize, fears a repeat of this, although the current rate of contract recruitment only allows for a stable army size, and of the 300,000 mobilized in 2022, only 78,000 remain at the front (as of May of last year), the institute's report states.

"Putin has long been trying to balance between 'guns and butter'—the need to prevent public discontent over another large-scale partial conscription, the need to maintain the momentum of the offensive, and the need to preserve the workforce in both the civilian and defense-industrial sectors from the already strained Russian economy," ISW writes.

Russia's strategy of attritional warfare relies on replenishing the army with contract soldiers, but the capacity of this system itself is approaching exhaustion in 2026, according to the institute's report. "The Kremlin's efforts to prepare Russian society for a new partial conscription of reservists indicate that Putin faces a difficult choice," ISW writes.

By the end of 2025, the Ministry of Defense's recruitment campaign brought 422,700 people into the army, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev reported earlier. The year before, this figure was 450,000, and in 2023, half a million. Thus, over three years, the influx into the army has decreased by approximately 10%.

In early 2026, Russian recruiters luring foreigners to fight for the "Russian world" in Ukraine received "blacklists" of countries from which recruitment into the Russian Armed Forces was to be stopped. This was reported by the newspaper "Important Stories," which examined recruiter chats and groups on social media and spoke with a representative of a regional recruitment center. According to the publication, this list includes 36 countries, mostly "friendly" to Russia. These include China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, Cuba, Afghanistan, Iran, Venezuela, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, and others. The Telegraph previously reported that by the end of 2025, during the war, Russia had recruited approximately 18,000 citizens from 128 countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, of whom at least 3,300 had died.

This stop list may be incomplete, the publication notes. According to Iraqi blogger Mustafa al-Yasari, who has written about Russian recruitment networks in the country, Argentina, Iraq, Yemen, Cameroon, Colombia, Libya, and Somalia were added to the list in February. Two weeks ago, an activist reported that a Russian Armed Forces officer allegedly passed this information on to him. However, this information was not confirmed by the recruitment center that circulated the initial list of 36 countries, according to journalists who have tracked continued recruitment, for example, from Colombia. According to al-Yasari, Iraq was added to the blacklist due to diplomatic contacts with the Russian side. Such contacts could have led to restrictions on the recruitment of foreign mercenaries from other countries as well.

For example, since mid-2024, Nepal, India, and Sri Lanka have been demanding that the Russian authorities stop recruiting their citizens into the Russian army. Moscow has stated that it will stop recruiting Indians and Sri Lankans. In November 2025, Jordan made a similar demand, after which it was also added to the blacklist. The same applies to Kenya, whose authorities claim that over 1,000 citizens have ended up fighting in Ukraine.

Journalists note that it is still unclear who exactly and at what level made the decision to include nearly 40 countries on the list of countries prohibited for recruitment into the Russian army.